Bitcoin extended its early October rally after the latest US employment report came in far below expectations, reinforcing market bets that the Federal Reserve will hold or cut interest rates rather than tighten further.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that non-farm payrolls rose by only 29,000 in September, sharply missing economist forecasts of roughly 89,000 to 90,000 and a prior month initially reported at 162,000 but later revised down to 133,000. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2%, against expectations of 4.1% and the previous 4.1%. Wage growth also cooled: month-over-month earnings rose just 0.1%, below the 0.3% forecast, while year-over-year earnings increased 3% versus 3.2% expected.
The weaker labor market data strengthened expectations for easier Fed policy. Prediction markets showed the odds of a Fed rate pause climbing to 85%, a sharp contrast to the prior month, when a hotter-than-expected jobs report boosted chances of a rate hike that later materialized. In that scenario, tighter financial conditions could pressure risky assets; now the potential for lower bond yields and a softer dollar is seen as supportive for Bitcoin and other risk-sensitive markets.
Bitcoin had already broken out of a late-September range between $82,000 and $85,000, climbing toward $86,900 before the release. Immediately after the payrolls miss, BTC shot up by roughly $1,000, peaking near $87,250 before pulling back to trade around $87,000.
