Bitcoin entered October with a third consecutive weekly gain, but the durability of its rebound is being tested by a critical U.S. jobs report and lingering caution from major financial institutions. BTC/USD traded near $86,400 on Friday, October 2, up about 3.1% over 24 hours, after earlier touching $86,650. The move extends a 2.6% weekly rise and follows a 6.4% monthly gain in September, marking a third straight positive month.
Still, JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs are reluctant to embrace the popular Uptober narrative. A Coinbase tweet highlighted the market's hesitation after only one meaningful positive price movement, noting that current action is not enough to declare a clear trend. Institutional players appear to be waiting for more sustained momentum before committing to aggressive bullish positioning, while subdued trading volumes point to a broader wait-and-see mood.
Bitcoin's seasonal record remains supportive but not decisive. It has risen in 10 of the past 15 Octobers, with positive months averaging a 27.4% gain and negative months averaging a 13% loss. October 2025 demonstrated the limits of seasonality, when Bitcoin hit a record near $126,000 early in the month but closed lower as risk appetite faded.
Technically, Bitcoin has cleared the $85,000 resistance zone that capped it for nearly a week, putting the next hurdle at $87,400, the September 21 high. It remains about 1.5% below its yearly open near $87,700 after falling as low as $58,000 earlier in 2026. Some traders have urged caution as price approaches local range highs once again.
The main macro catalyst is Friday's U.S. nonfarm payrolls report. Since labor market data helps guide Federal Reserve decisions, strong payrolls could give the Fed room to raise rates again after September's increase, lifting yields on safer assets and drawing capital away from speculative assets such as Bitcoin. Conversely, weaker data could support the case for a pause. Polymarket currently prices a 66% chance the Fed holds rates in October, but officials remain split. Treasury yields have already risen this week, inflation remains sticky, and U.S.-Iran tensions persist, adding to the risk backdrop.
For the rest of October, traders are watching Treasury yields, inflation signals, rate expectations, and geopolitical developments alongside Bitcoin's price action. The rebound has momentum, but whether it can carry through the month remains unresolved.
