The altcoin market has flashed a major bullish signal for the first time in 19 months as the monthly MACD on the total altcoin market capitalization chart turned positive. This development coincided with Ethereum breaking out of a key consolidation range, reigniting expectations for a highly anticipated altseason in the final quarter of 2026.
According to a prominent crypto analyst, the altcoin market cap monthly MACD flipping bullish is a historically significant event. The last two times this pattern occurred, most altcoins went on to pump non-stop for several months. If history repeats, the first two months of Q4 2026 could see a rapid rise in altcoin prices.
Ethereum's price action has been particularly volatile. The asset spent a full day capped at $2,708 before one hourly candle on 9x normal volume punched through the resistance level and tagged $2,739. However, the breakout was short-lived, with ETH giving back the entire move before London opened and settling at $2,704, right back under the breakout level. The analyst noted that $2,708 is the decisive level to watch; as long as $2,690 holds, a retest of $2,739 could occur, but losing it would expose $2,672 as the liquidity below.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin and Ethereum continue trading in the $86,000 and $2,700 price ranges respectively. Some analysts believe a short correction could push BTC as low as $79,000 before a push toward $90,000 can materialize. Despite these concerns, most market participants remain confident that altcoins could outperform BTC, bringing the altseason into play.
Adding to the bullish sentiment, renowned analyst Michael van de Poppe expects this crypto cycle to favor established altcoin protocols over newer projects. He pointed to AAVE, LINK, and NEAR as examples of older protocols whose teams continue improving their products toward product-market fit. Van de Poppe noted that previous cycles often rewarded investors who moved into newer altcoins, but he does not expect the current cycle to follow that pattern, partly due to the weak altcoin performance during the 2024 bull run.
Market data supports the broader altcoin recovery. TOTAL excluding the top 10 cryptocurrencies reached approximately $247.8 billion, rising from roughly $198 billion in early September. The smaller-cap market now faces resistance between $250 billion and $255 billion, while $240 billion remains the first key support level. Momentum readings remain positive, with RSI at 57.43 against an average of 52.45, and the MACD line at 814.34 million versus a signal line of 224.63 million. A sustained move above $255 billion would confirm renewed strength, while losing $240 billion could expose the $230 billion to $235 billion range.
