US labor data revisions have weakened the case for another Federal Reserve rate hike, while Bitget Wallet research lead Lacie Zhang says Bitcoin could extend toward $90,000–$93,000 if Treasury yields ease and inflation cools.
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics revised July and August payroll gains down by 60,000 on Oct. 2. July’s estimate flipped from a 21,000 gain to a 10,000 loss, and August’s gain was cut from 162,000 to 133,000. September payroll growth came in at only 29,000. Average hourly earnings rose 0.1% monthly and 3.0% annually, below the previously reported 0.3% and 3.1% for August. The figures arrive after the Fed’s Sept. 16 quarter-point hike to a 3.75%–4.00% target range.
According to Zhang, CME FedWatch data as of Oct. 5 showed October rate-hike odds near 23%, down from roughly 64% a week earlier. She said the repricing has already provided a meaningful boost to Bitcoin, but a sustained move toward $90,000–$93,000 depends on lower yields, supportive inflation data and stronger spot buying. Bitcoin needs a daily or weekly close above $87,400 to confirm a breakout, with downside support at $84,000 and $82,000.
Zhang noted that US spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted about $2.65 billion in September and roughly $134 million across October’s first two trading sessions. However, repeated failures to hold above $87,000 suggest profit-taking and existing supply are still absorbing institutional demand. Among the risks to the outlook, she listed stronger CPI or PPI readings, renewed oil-driven inflation, hawkish Fed guidance and another rise in long-term Treasury yields.
