SpaceX shares rallied sharply on Monday, advancing roughly 4% in early trading and later climbing about 6% to approximately $168.78, pushing the company's market capitalization to around $2.29 trillion. The move followed a new endorsement from Morgan Stanley, which reiterated an Overweight rating and a $300 price target on the stock while calling it an unusually cheap way to gain exposure to the space and artificial intelligence economy. The rally helped Elon Musk return to trillionaire status, with Forbes estimating his net worth at $1 trillion, up $30.6 billion from Friday.
Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas argued that SpaceX appears expensive on conventional valuation measures but becomes more attractive when adjusted for expected growth. The company trades at roughly 30 times estimated 2028 EV/EBIT, compared with about 16 times for other mega-cap AI enablers, while its EV/EBIT/growth ratio stands at 0.3 times, around 40% below the peer median. At Friday's closing price of $159, Morgan Stanley estimated that the market was assigning about $127 per share to Starlink and the rocket-launch business, leaving roughly $32 per share for AI operations. The brokerage's $300 target includes $8 for external launch operations, $118 for Starlink connectivity, $8 for consumer AI tools such as Grok, and $165 for enterprise AI services.
Morgan Stanley identified the upcoming Starship Flight 15 as a major potential catalyst. The launch is expected in late October or early November and could include an attempt to catch the spacecraft's upper section in mid-air. A successful ship catch, Jonas said, could become the biggest positive catalyst for SpaceX since its initial public offering by reducing launch costs and accelerating infrastructure deployment. SpaceX's third-quarter earnings, due later this month, may also offer an early indication of AI service adoption and monetization, including Cursor and Grok Bot.
Separately, Musk said on X that the company's AI division would be rebranded from SpaceXAI to SpaceXSI, adopting the term "Super Intelligence" instead of "Artificial Intelligence." The change followed President Donald Trump's Executive Order 14434, signed September 29, directing federal agencies to use "Super Intelligence" and "SI" in non-statutory documents. SpaceX's AI unit generated $2.56 billion in third-quarter revenue, far exceeding the $962 million from its space business. Total second-quarter revenue rose 92% year over year to $7.8 billion, while the AI arm posted a 247% jump. Management has forecast a $100 billion annual run rate by December 2026.
SpaceX priced its June IPO at $135, opened at $150, and reached $211 within three days before later falling to $123. The 52-week range now runs from $104.83 to $225.64. Despite the bullish tone, risks remain: SpaceX reported a second-quarter net loss of about $541 million on capital expenditure of $18.4 billion, and its price-to-sales ratio sits above 100. Morgan Stanley also noted that institutional ownership remains relatively low among its clients. A softer-than-expected September jobs report, with unemployment rising to 4.2% and payrolls increasing by just 29,000, dampened expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike, helping the Nasdaq rise 0.7% on the day.
