US equity futures and cash indexes traded mixed on Monday as investors weighed a softer September jobs report against still-elevated long-term borrowing costs, a strong dollar and oil prices near $100. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 98 points, while S&P 500 futures were little changed and Nasdaq 100 futures edged higher after Friday's record close for the Nasdaq Composite.
The September payrolls report showed just 29,000 jobs added, unemployment rising to 4.2%, and July and August revisions subtracting 60,000 jobs. That pushed market odds of an October Federal Reserve hold above 80%. CME FedWatch pricing still assigns about a 69% probability to a quarter-point rate increase by December.
The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield hovered near 5.26% to 5.30%, while the 30-year yield stood near 5.66%. Investors awaited final S&P Global services PMI and ISM services data later Monday, with economists expecting the ISM gauge at 55.7. A strong services print could revive concerns that weak payrolls do not necessarily mean weak demand.
Global financial conditions also tightened as France's fiscal stress pushed the spread between French and German 10-year yields to about 150 basis points, while the euro fell to a 17-month low near $1.116. Oil remained expensive enough to matter for inflation, with Brent crude near $102 and WTI near $90 after both fell more than 1% earlier. OPEC+ left November production targets unchanged, while the G7 planned a 100-million-barrel reserve release.
In corporate news, PTC jumped about 35% after Schneider Electric agreed to buy the industrial-software company for $205 per share in cash, valuing its equity at $22.6 billion. Intel fell more than 2% after Elon Musk confirmed TSMC talks with Terafab about managing Texas semiconductor plants. Cerebras Systems gained 4.4% after OpenAI CEO Sam Altman described the chip designer as a close partner, while RXO rose 23% on a $5.8 billion deal with C.H. Robinson.
For crypto markets, the combination of high Treasury yields, elevated oil prices and a resilient dollar remains a headwind, because tighter financial conditions tend to reduce appetite for risk assets.
