A 4chan post from December 12, 2023 that precisely called Bitcoin’s peak on October 6, 2025 at about $126,198 is now being cited as evidence that the cycle bottom may have arrived on October 5, 2026. The anonymous post, archived on Warosu under the handle SBC7H7La, used a repeating sequence of 1,064-day upswings and 364-day declines: from the 2015 low to the 2017 high, the 2017 high to the 2018 low, the 2018 low to the 2021 high, and the 2021 high to the 2022 low. Projecting that rhythm forward put the next all-time high on October 6, 2025, where Bitcoin peaked near $126,198.
By adding the pattern’s 364-day decline to the October 2025 top, the implied bottom date landed on October 5, 2026. On Monday, Bitcoin traded around $85,800 to $86,190, about 30–32% below its record, but roughly 49% above its July 1 low near $57,700. The price hit an intraday high around $86,970, just $430 below the late-September high near $87,400, before pulling back about $1,000.
The original post included “People want to believe otherwise but the simulation will repeat itself.” However, skeptics caution that the model is based on only two full Bitcoin cycles and could be coincidental. Some analysts expect a deeper floor. 21Shares noted that this drawdown has been less severe than past cycles that fell 80% or more. Cryptopolitan previously reported research suggesting a likely bottom between October and December 2026 at $50,000 to $55,000, with the April 2024 halving linked to that late-2026 window. Past cycles bottomed 24 to 28 months after halving, including December 2018 at $3,200 and late 2022 at $15,500.
Friday’s weaker U.S. jobs data—only 29,000 jobs added in September—also eased pressure on the Federal Reserve to keep raising rates, supporting risk assets. Still, analysts warned that a deep recession or stricter government rules could push Bitcoin’s low into the first quarter of 2027.
