Bitcoin is facing a pivotal moment as rising economic yields and shifting oil prices cloud the debate over whether its bottom is confirmed. After multiple failed breakout attempts, BTC pulled back 3.5%, or roughly $3,000, on Tuesday, leaving traders divided on whether the market is staging a healthy retest or preparing for a deeper correction.
Crypto market commentators have pointed to broader financial anxiety, with Ray Dalio among prominent voices expressing worry. Earlier market commentary had flagged multiple failed attempts around the $65,000 resistance zone before the latest leg higher, while more recent technical analysis focuses on support near $84,000. Traders are also monitoring how tightening monetary conditions could affect investor sentiment toward cryptocurrencies. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield remains elevated at 5.3%, though some analysts see signs it could soften back to 5% in the short to medium term.
Oil markets are also at a technical crossroads. WTI Crude slipped through the bottom of its ascending channel on Tuesday before recovering. Horizontal support at $84 is reinforced by the 200-day SMA, but a breakdown could expose levels near $75 and $68. Conversely, a bounce could push oil toward $93, with an outside move to $105 depending on the US-Iran conflict.
On the BTC chart, the 4-hour view shows price dumping below its ascending trendline and sitting on support near $84,000. A failure there would likely send Bitcoin toward the bottom of its channel. Stochastic RSI indicators have reached bottom on this timeframe, suggesting upside momentum could return. On the daily chart, analysts see a possible retest of the channel bottom, with a more bearish scenario targeting the 200-day SMA and the $73,600 horizontal support level, a nearly 16% correction from the top. The weekly chart shows the 50-week SMA near $73,000 as a critical level that previously signaled the new bull market.
Key levels to watch include Bitcoin’s support near $84,000 and downside targets around $73,000. A break above resistance could renew bullish momentum, while failure at current support may increase selling pressure. The interplay between yields, oil, and Bitcoin’s technical structure will be vital in shaping the next major move.
