Ethereum was trading around $2,600 on Oct. 7 after falling roughly 4% on Wednesday and about 2.9% over 24 hours to near $2,618, with a market capitalization of approximately $328.06 billion. The decline came during a broader crypto selloff as the 10-year Treasury yield climbed above 5.3%, the U.S. dollar strengthened, and oil prices returned above $100. Bitcoin dropped below $84,000, while XRP slid toward $1.46.
The key technical challenge remains the $2,800 breakout level. ETH recently posted its strongest weekly candle in more than eight months, but the recovery stalled below resistance. On the four-hour chart, ETH lost its 50, 75, and 100 EMAs, which now form a resistance band around $2,666–$2,689. Analysts see support at $2,550–$2,585, with a sustained break below roughly $2,600 potentially exposing $2,500. A move back above $2,700 would be the first step toward rebuilding momentum, and a weekly close above $2,800 could reopen the path toward $3,000 and later $3,400–$3,500.
Institutional flow data is adding pressure. U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs recorded approximately $50.76 million in net outflows on Oct. 5, extending a five-day streak to about $205.9 million, and posted another $201.9 million in outflows on Oct. 6, their largest withdrawal in weeks. Meanwhile, Bitcoin ETFs attracted $118.8 million on Oct. 6, highlighting a divergence in demand.
Citi lifted its 12-month Ethereum price target on Oct. 1 from $2,240 to $3,028, a roughly 35% increase, citing stronger crypto activity, improving macro conditions, and expectations for renewed investment flows. The bank expects about $5 billion in crypto inflows over the next 12 months, although those allocations are expected to arrive gradually. At $2,600, ETH would need to gain roughly 16% to reach that target.
Ethereum’s supply picture is mixed. The validator exit queue climbed from about 200,000 ETH near Sept. 30 to roughly 800,000 ETH by Oct. 3, an increase of around 392%, creating potential liquid supply. At the same time, more than 1.5 million ETH was recently waiting to enter staking, and the Glamsterdam upgrade is testing materially higher Layer-1 capacity.
