Macroeconomic forces dominated trading ahead of the Federal Reserve’s September meeting minutes, with the U.S. dollar strengthening, Treasury yields pulling back from multi-decade highs and gold prices whipsawing. The Fed raised interest rates for the first time since 2023 at the September meeting, lifting the target range to 3.75%–4.00% in a unanimous 12-0 vote under new Chair Kevin Warsh. The dot plot signaled one more hike before the end of 2026, while inflation remains around 3.7%, well above the central bank’s 2% target.
Gold initially rose on Tuesday as Treasury yields and the dollar eased. Spot gold climbed 0.66% to $4,166.65 an ounce, while December gold futures settled 0.97% higher at $4,197.30. On Wednesday, however, the U.S. dollar index rose 0.4% to 102.26, pressuring gold lower by about 1%. Spot gold traded near $4,126 an ounce before paring losses to around $4,167 later in the session; gold futures slipped 0.8% to $4,151.90.
The bond market also moved sharply. The 10-year Treasury yield fell more than four basis points to 5.281%, the 30-year yield declined to 5.651%, and the two-year yield dropped to 4.802%. Longer-term yields had reached 24-year highs earlier in the week. Traders now price in less than a one-in-five chance of another Fed rate hike in October, down from roughly 40% a week earlier, according to CME’s FedWatch Tool.
Oil prices were little changed as rising Middle Eastern crude exports and planned emergency stockpile releases eased supply fears. Brent crude rose 0.66% to $100.98 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate gained 0.36% to $89.75. Vitol’s CEO said around 12 million barrels per day of crude and 2 million barrels per day of refined products left the region on tankers over the previous seven to 10 days. Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline transported 5.8 million barrels to the Red Sea export hub of Yanbu. Shell CEO Wael Sawan estimated that oil flows from the region are back to around 80% of pre-conflict levels. The G7 has also agreed to release 100 million barrels of diesel and crude from emergency reserves.
In a separate technology development, Anthropic expanded access to its most advanced AI models, including Claude Opus 5.5, Claude Sonnet 5.5 and Claude Mythos 5.1, to selected organizations for high-risk cybersecurity testing in collaboration with the U.S. government. The program builds on Project Glasswing and comes as JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said Tuesday that Anthropic’s Mythos model had increased global cybersecurity risks tenfold.
For crypto markets, the macro backdrop remains a major driver. Lower rate-hike expectations and easing yields can support risk appetite, while dollar strength adds pressure. Central bank gold buying continues to provide a signal of reserve diversification amid geopolitical uncertainty: the World Gold Council reported central banks added 39 tonnes of gold in August, bringing year-to-date purchases to 170 tonnes.
