Gold prices slipped toward $4,140 an ounce on Wednesday, leaving bullion roughly 26% below its January record of $5,594.82 as investors awaited Federal Reserve meeting minutes. Spot gold traded near $4,138.34, while markets priced an approximately 87% probability of another Fed increase by December.
Against that backdrop, Russia’s Ministry of Finance announced on October 5 that it would increase combined foreign exchange and gold purchases fivefold from October 7 through November 6. The new program has an allocation of 279.42 billion rubles, with daily purchases averaging about 12.7 billion rubles, compared with roughly 2.1 billion rubles previously. The monthly allocation rises from about 55.6 billion rubles ($650 million) to roughly $3.3 billion, although the full amount is not direct gold demand because it also includes foreign currency operations under Russia’s budgetary rules, with additional oil and gas revenue directed into the National Welfare Fund.
The macro pressure on gold is also relevant for crypto markets. The US 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields reached fresh 24-year highs on Monday, with the 10-year yield around 5.3%, while a firm dollar makes dollar-denominated assets more expensive for international buyers. Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid has argued that policy may still need to tighten further if inflation remains too high, and ING analysts said elevated yields, inflation risks, and dollar strength are likely to restrain gold near term even as safe-haven demand provides support.
Still, longer-term forecasts remain bullish. London Bullion Market Association delegates forecast $5,013 within 12 months, Goldman Sachs sees $4,900, and JPMorgan is substantially more bullish at $6,000. World Gold Council data show central banks bought a net 39 tonnes in August, led by China, Poland and Uzbekistan, with China extending its buying streak to 22 consecutive months. Global physically backed gold ETFs attracted $18 billion in August, the second-largest monthly inflow on record, pushing total holdings to a record 4,189 tonnes.
For Bitcoin, the digital gold narrative remains sensitive to the same liquidity and rate dynamics. Restrictive Fed expectations, elevated Treasury yields, and dollar strength can dampen demand for non-yielding risk assets. Saxo Bank’s Ole Hansen identified support just above $4,100 for gold, a level that may act as a broader sentiment reference if macro conditions shift.
