OpenAI Revenue Run Rate Misses $70B by $20 Billion, Pressuring AI Stocks

yesterday / 23:07 2 sources neutral

Key takeaways:

  • AI equity selloff may pressure FET, RNDR, TAO via sentiment, not fundamentals.
  • OpenAI's revenue restatement is accounting optics, but AI valuation skepticism remains the real crypto risk.
  • Watch Nvidia and Oracle weakness as leading indicators for AI token drawdowns this quarter.

OpenAI's annualized revenue is now approaching $50 billion, about $20 billion below the $70 billion run rate reported in late September, according to the Financial Times. The gap is not due to lost sales but stems from differing revenue calculations between OpenAI and rival Anthropic.

Anthropic includes revenue generated through cloud partners such as Amazon Web Services and Google Cloud, while OpenAI does not record those sales in the same way. OpenAI investors had "grossed up" the company's annualized revenue to make it directly comparable with Anthropic, which contributed to the inflated figures. In August, reports said OpenAI's revenue run rate had topped $40 billion; after the company told investors revenue grew more than 70%, a $70 billion figure appeared.

The disclosure hit AI-related equities on Thursday. Nvidia dropped 3%, Oracle lost 6%, CoreWeave tumbled 8%, AMD and Broadcom each fell 5%, and Intel and Super Micro Computer declined 6%.

The news lands while OpenAI prepares to raise at least $30 billion in fresh capital at a valuation of about $1.4 trillion, excluding new money. It last raised $122 billion in March at an $852 billion valuation. CEO Sam Altman said OpenAI will not go public this year because of AI safety pressures: "We just want to get our feet under us."

Anthropic has its own ambitious targets: reported annualized revenue reached $65 billion by late July, and it is preparing an IPO with some investors eyeing a $2 trillion valuation. Independent research firm New Constructs, however, argues Anthropic should be valued at no more than $150 billion, pointing to $4.6 billion in 2025 revenue against a $42 billion net loss.

OpenAI continues expanding products, including the Dots AI agent and a $500 subscription tier, while also dealing with safety scrutiny. The company canceled the GPT-6.1 Astra launch after the technology failed internal testing requirements.

For crypto markets, the direct effect is limited, though AI-linked digital assets could face indirect sentiment pressure if the AI equity sell-off deepens.

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