Investment bank TD Cowen warned that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s newly proposed federal framework for leveraged and margined crypto trading may run out of time before the 2028 U.S. presidential election, putting the current administration’s crypto rulemaking at risk.
In a note Monday, Jaret Seiberg, managing director at TD Cowen’s Washington Research Group, called the CFTC’s advance notice of proposed rulemaking released a week ago a positive step for crypto platforms. However, he said the agency likely won’t finalize the rule until early 2028. “Time is running out,” Seiberg wrote. “We believe the agency at best will get its proposal out in late Q1 2027 or early Q2 2027. It could then take until early 2028 to finalize the rule.”
The proposed framework would require platforms to maintain proof-of-reserves audits and give the CFTC authority over state-licensed platforms, while avoiding outright jurisdiction over spot market transactions. The CFTC and the Securities and Exchange Commission stepped in after the Senate failed in an initial vote to pass broad crypto legislation that would have given the CFTC permanent authority over spot crypto trading.
TD Cowen also cautioned that fast-tracking the rulemaking could increase the risk of court intervention. “Expediting this process will increase the risk that a judge blocks it on procedural grounds,” Seiberg said. “Even if the agency is careful, we still expect legal challenges could extend beyond 2028.”
For Bitcoin, the distinction between CFTC-led oversight and SEC-led securities regulation is significant. A CFTC framework is generally seen as more favorable to Bitcoin’s classification as a commodity, which carries lighter regulatory burdens. Yet if the framework is not finalized before a new administration takes office, it could be deprioritized, revised, or reversed, leaving institutional custodians and miners without durable regulatory certainty.
