Polymarket’s “Fed Decision in October?” market now prices an 86% probability that the Federal Open Market Committee will leave rates unchanged at its October 27–28 meeting, with only a 14% chance of a 25-basis-point hike. CME’s FedWatch tool points in the same direction, assigning 81.7% to no change and 18.3% to an increase. The Fed’s target range stands at 3.75% to 4.00% after September’s 25-basis-point rise, and the effective federal funds rate is near 3.88%.
However, traders are not pricing relief beyond October. Polymarket’s December contract shows a 76% probability of a 25-basis-point increase and only 23% for no change, while its 2026 rate-cut market assigns 96% to zero cuts. September FOMC minutes noted that most participants considered another hike appropriate by year-end. That leaves Bitcoin and broader risk assets exposed to a later tightening move even if the October meeting passes without an increase.
On the inflation side, Truflation estimates that September U.S. headline CPI will rise to 3.6% annually, up from 3.4% in August, with a 0.48% monthly increase. Core CPI is projected at 2.4% annually, below the 2.5% market consensus. Gasoline prices jumped 4.8% month over month and 32.1% year over year, making energy the main source of headline pressure. Truflation also cited elevated August producer inflation of 5.4% annually, a 7% annual rise in import prices, and a September ISM prices index of 77.9 as signs that goods inflation could persist into year-end. On the services side, payroll growth slowed to 29,000 and unemployment rose to 4.2%, with annual pay growth moderating to 4%, which Truflation said may restrain services inflation.
For crypto, the macro crosscurrents are already visible. Bitfinex analysts said weekly U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF inflows slowed to $241.1 million for September 28 to October 2, down from roughly $2.39 billion the prior week, and noted that five-year Treasury yields above 5% and ten-year yields above 5.2% are at 19-year highs, limiting participation in risk assets. The next catalysts are the September CPI report on October 14 and the Fed’s December 8–9 meeting.
