The XRP market's rebound to near $1.40 is being tested by an uneven recovery in derivatives and spot activity, according to market data compiled by XRPL.to. The data shows that long liquidations cleared significant leveraged exposure in early October, but open interest has since started to rebuild even as spot turnover on Binance collapsed.
During October 7–8, XRPL.to recorded $40.70 million in long liquidations across Binance, Bybit and OKX in its streamed sample. Short liquidations were just $1.72 million. Binance accounted for $24.69 million, Bybit $11.65 million and OKX $4.36 million. The figures describe notional contract value, not realized cash losses, and the provider's methodology means the totals may undercount actual forced closures.
Matched open-interest readings showed the contraction. On Binance, XRPUSDT open interest fell from 321.40 million XRP at 00:00 UTC on October 8 to 295.47 million XRP on October 9, an 8.1% decline. Bybit's reading fell from 211.92 million XRP to 197.90 million XRP, down 6.6%. By midnight on October 11, however, both venues had begun rebuilding exposure: Binance added 3.72 million XRP, or 1.3%, to 297.75 million XRP, while Bybit added 6.46 million XRP, or 3.3%, to 201.00 million XRP. Both remained below their October 8 levels.
Funding shifted in line with the rebuild. For the completed UTC day on October 9, settled funding on Binance was roughly -0.0173%, on Bybit -0.0163% and on OKX -0.0101%. By October 10, Binance and Bybit had turned positive. Quotes around 12:11 UTC on October 11 were positive across all three venues, meaning renewed long-side exposure carried a financing cost.
The rebound lacked consistent spot demand. Binance completed daily XRP/USDT turnover dropped from 252.45 million USDT on October 8 to 120.39 million on October 9 and 54.12 million on October 10, a 78.6% decline over two days. XRP's daily close rose only 1.6% over October 8–10, from 1.3805 to 1.4024 USDT. Buyer-initiated trades on Binance spot represented 51.8% on October 9 and 43.1% on October 10.
The pattern illustrates a core point from derivatives analytics: open interest is a measure of accumulated leverage, not a directional buy or sell signal. Every futures contract has a long and a short counterparty, so a rise in open interest confirms that new positions are being opened, but it does not by itself prove organic buying. Positive funding alongside rising open interest indicates that longs are paying shorts, not that spot demand is strong. With spot volume fading, the rebuilding leverage may increase fragility rather than confirm a durable recovery.
