Chainlink (LINK) is approaching a decisive technical juncture after breaking below its former ascending channel, with support near $11.91 emerging as the key level for the near-term trend. LINK traded around $12.128 on October 15, down about 2.35% during the developing daily session, and printed an intraday low of $11.920, just above the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement.
The token’s August recovery from roughly $8 to above $15 by late September has given way to a corrective structure. Following the late-September peak, LINK began forming lower highs inside a descending channel. A former horizontal support area near $12.14 is now being tested from below, while the Relative Strength Index stood at 41.57, below its moving average of 50.75, indicating weakening momentum without yet reaching oversold conditions.
Derivatives data points to deleveraging rather than aggressive new positioning. According to Coinalyze, LINK’s aggregate open interest declined 7.25% over 24 hours to $275 million, with exposure concentrated in perpetual contracts. Binance held approximately $110.6 million in outstanding positions, Bybit had $70.1 million, and Hyperliquid accounted for $58.4 million, together representing nearly 87% of the total. Long liquidations dominated, with Coinglass reporting roughly $2.03 million in long liquidations out of $2.09 million total, about 97% of forced closures.
Separate exchange snapshots showed Gate leading LINK open interest at about $118.13 million, followed by Binance at $111.84 million and Bybit at $73.08 million. Binance also led reported volume, with figures ranging from about $175.23 million to $189.47 million depending on the snapshot, while MEXC followed with $101.71 million to $131.15 million. BingX recorded the highest number of futures trades at approximately 1.22 million, compared with Binance’s 777,010.
From an Elliott wave perspective, analysts suggested wave B may have topped, opening the door to a potential wave C decline. The first important downside reference is $11.90. A decisive close below that level would shift attention toward the broader support zone between $10.30 and $11.30. On the upside, a daily close back above $12.14 could signal stabilization, with the 0.618 Fibonacci level near $12.84 as the next resistance and the 38.2% retracement near $13.80 as a stronger recovery hurdle.
