Strategy Shares Slide on MSCI Exclusion Threat Even as Bitcoin Climbs

1 hour ago 2 sources neutral

Key takeaways:

  • MSCI exclusion risk may decouple MSTR from BTC, creating index-driven selling pressure despite Bitcoin strength.
  • Only 3.1% passive ownership limits forced-sale impact, but sentiment risk could pressure MSTR short-term.
  • Strategy's 12% STRC dividend signals financing confidence, but index exclusion remains key MSTR catalyst.

Strategy shares fell 6% on Friday as investors weighed the possibility that the company could be removed from MSCI global equity indexes, even while Bitcoin traded higher around $82,290. The stock, formerly known as MicroStrategy, remains the world's largest corporate Bitcoin holder with 848,250 BTC.

MSCI said non-operating companies would become ineligible for its Global Investable Market Indexes from the close of November 30, with a final list expected on November 11. Strategy and Japan's Metaplanet are among those potentially facing removal, while SharpLink and other crypto treasury companies are on a watchlist. Passive funds tracking MSCI benchmarks may be forced to sell affected stocks, and Strategy has previously warned that exclusion could lead to about $2.8 billion in share liquidations.

Strategy disputed the classification, saying the proposal is misguided and that MSCI's operating versus non-operating distinction lacks a clear basis in US GAAP, IFRS or recognized legal frameworks. The company also noted that funds tracking MSCI's Global Investable Market Indexes hold only 3.1% of its outstanding shares, potentially limiting direct impact.

Separately, Strategy declared daily cash dividends on its STRC preferred stock for November, keeping the annualized dividend rate at 12%, subject to shareholder approval. Payments are scheduled to begin on November 2. STRC was down 0.2% at $99.33. Strategy recently added 250 Bitcoin for $21.5 million and repurchased $176 million worth of STRC in the week ending October 4.

Despite the MSCI concerns, analyst sentiment remains positive. Citi, Barclays and B. Riley have raised price targets for MSTR to $240, $175 and $195 respectively, according to a social media post by Ki Young Ju. Bitcoin gained more than 1.3% over the previous 24 hours, highlighting how index inclusion and financing factors can influence Strategy even when crypto prices rise.

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