BitFlyer Flags Stellar Deposit Delay as XRP-XLM Valuation Gap Stays Wide

1 hour ago 2 sources neutral

Key takeaways:

  • BitFlyer's XLM deposit outage exposes operational risk despite Stellar's strong Q3 network growth.
  • Stellar's $4.1B RWA growth may not translate into sustained XLM demand without clearer utility.
  • Watch DTCC's 2027 catalyst; XLM needs recurring demand to challenge XRP's ETF-backed liquidity advantage.

Japanese exchange BitFlyer has warned customers that incoming Stellar (XLM) deposits have not been credited normally since approximately 11:49 p.m. JST on Monday, October 19, 2026. The exchange attributed the disruption to access restrictions on the official Stellar Development Foundation API, which it uses to process inbound XLM payments.

BitFlyer said it is working to resume crediting through alternative means, but it did not provide a specific timeline. The issue is limited to incoming XLM deposits; sending XLM and receiving or sending all other supported crypto assets remain unaffected. The notice means customers sending XLM to the exchange may face delays rather than a general suspension of Stellar transactions.

Separately, a market analysis comparing XRP and XLM argues that the wide market capitalization gap between the two assets will not close merely through institutional narrative. XRP’s market capitalization is estimated at roughly $80 billion to $82 billion, while XLM sits between $5 billion and $8.5 billion, implying a multiple of about 10x to 13x. The analysis says XLM would need to trade near $2.50 to match XRP’s market value without supply changes.

The report acknowledges Stellar’s progress in real-world asset tokenization, noting tokenized value on Stellar reached about $3.5 billion, above roughly $2.5 billion on the XRP Ledger. Stellar’s RWA holder base exceeds 17,800 addresses, compared with 122 on XRPL. Franklin Templeton’s BENJI fund and Spiko, with nearly $1.7 billion, are cited as evidence of institutional use. However, the analysis stresses that tokenized value does not automatically translate into token utility demand for XLM.

The DTCC integration is described as Stellar’s highest-potential catalyst, with launch expected in the first half of 2027, but the arrangement is not exclusive and requires operational execution to convert into recurring XLM demand. Stellar’s technical arguments include the Soroban smart contracts platform and privacy features from the recent protocol cycle, as well as the joint SEC and CFTC designation of XLM as a digital commodity in March 2026.

XRP retains structural advantages, the analysis says, including nine spot ETFs with about $1.56 billion in net assets, of which Bitwise holds more than $500 million in one vehicle, plus deeper liquidity and an established cross-border settlement role. The 2025 resolution of the SEC litigation reduced regulatory uncertainty for XRP. The conclusion: the gap can narrow gradually only if Stellar converts network activity into sustained XLM buying and institutional inflows, while XRP maintains its infrastructure and regulated product base.

Stellar separately reported Q3 2026 growth: total volume reached $33.2 billion, up 71% quarter over quarter and 62% year over year. Stablecoin transfer volume rose 121% quarter over quarter to $25.1 billion, and tokenized real-world assets on Stellar stood at $4.1 billion, up 36% quarter over quarter and 548% versus Q3 2025.

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