Silver and gold are entering the Federal Reserve’s October policy meeting without clear bullish momentum, as traders weigh the central bank’s next move against stubborn inflation and elevated Treasury yields.
Silver (XAG/USD) was trading near $57.30 on October 21 after another weak session, down about 1.4%. The two-hour chart shows the metal slipping back toward the middle of its recent range after a failed recovery from last week’s decline toward $55.50. Immediate support sits near $57.00, with a deeper zone at $55.50–$56.00. On the upside, silver needs to reclaim $57.80–$58.00 before a stronger rebound becomes likely, while the larger resistance area remains at $58.50–$59.00.
Gold was hovering in the low-$4,100s, around $4,125–$4,150, after repeated failures to extend rallies toward $4,160–$4,200. The key battleground has become the $4,080–$4,100 support zone. A decisive break below that area could expose $4,040 and then the psychological $4,000 level. Gold fell for a fourth straight session in the same market environment.
The main macro driver is the upcoming FOMC meeting on October 27–28. A Reuters poll conducted October 16–20 found that 94 of 100 economists expect the Fed to leave rates unchanged at this meeting. However, all respondents in the poll still expect another rate increase in December, reflecting lingering inflation concerns. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield recently traded near 5.13%, keeping pressure on non-yielding assets. The dollar firmed as yields and oil prices moved higher, making precious metals more expensive for foreign buyers.
Oil has added to the inflation narrative. Brent crude moved back above roughly $108 as optimism around U.S.-Iran diplomacy weakened. Higher energy prices can feed inflation expectations and reinforce the argument that the Fed may need to stay restrictive even if it pauses this month.
Technical momentum in silver has cooled after its bounce. The four-hour chart shows price stabilizing in a narrow $57–$58 range, with RSI near 49.4 and its average near 47.0. Silver also remains dramatically below its 200-day average near $71.63, showing the larger trend has not been repaired. For October 22, traders are watching U.S. data including weekly jobless claims, the Conference Board Leading Economic Index, and the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey. Softer data could pull yields lower and support metals, while strong numbers would likely reinforce the higher-for-longer rate outlook.
The near-term path depends less on the October pause itself and more on the Fed’s December guidance. A more dovish message accompanied by lower yields and a weaker dollar could improve the setup for both metals, while continued hawkish signaling could keep silver and gold under pressure.
