Speculation over a potential merger between Tesla and SpaceX intensified on the eve of Tesla’s third-quarter earnings report, as investors pressed Elon Musk on whether the electric-vehicle maker can balance mounting artificial-intelligence spending with profitability.
According to Reuters, the question “When will SpaceX merge with Tesla?” received 26 votes on SpaceX’s investor platform and 128 votes on Tesla’s platform. At SpaceX, only a question about Starship’s lunar lander hardware attracted more votes, with 38.
Musk added fuel to the debate on Tuesday, saying combining the two companies would be “a good idea” and that special committees had been formed. Following those remarks, SpaceX shares rose 8% in extended trading, while Tesla rose more than 2% in premarket trading. A combined entity could be worth around $3.5 trillion, according to some estimates.
Financial details illustrate the scale of the discussions. SpaceX reported third-quarter revenue of $14.6 billion and net income of $4.4 billion on October 20. Its AI unit generated $7.56 billion in revenue but recorded capital spending of $16.44 billion. In the second quarter, SpaceX also purchased $295 million worth of Tesla Megapacks, reflecting existing commercial links. Tesla had previously invested $2 billion into xAI in January 2026, and SpaceX later folded xAI into its operations.
For Tesla, analysts expect revenue of about $28.3 billion and adjusted earnings of roughly 43 to 45 cents per share, down from 50 cents per share a year earlier. Third-quarter deliveries were 486,532 vehicles, beating expectations but declining 2.1% year over year. Tesla shares are down about 15% this year, and options markets are pricing in a post-earnings move of about 5.9% in either direction.
Capital expenditure remains a central concern. Bloomberg-compiled estimates indicate Tesla spending could exceed $25 billion in 2026, potentially the company’s most expensive year on record. Tesla also took out $30 billion in credit and loan facilities last month. Chief Financial Officer Vaibhav Taneja has said capital expenditures will grow for the next two or three years because of robotaxis, humanoid robots and other projects.
Investors are seeking updates on the Cybercab robotaxi rollout and the Optimus humanoid robot timeline. Tesla began deploying Cybercabs in Austin, Texas, last month and has registered nearly 350 vehicles with the Texas Department of Motor Vehicles. According to RobotaxiTracker, 187 Cybercabs are active in Austin. Energy storage is another growth avenue, with Tesla deploying 13.7 gigawatt-hours of batteries in the third quarter.
Barclays analysts suggested a merger could occur before Tesla’s annual corporate meeting on December 3. They outlined a structure based entirely on stock, under which Musk could hold 37% of the merged company’s shares but control 56% of voting rights. Constellation Research analyst Ray Wang estimated Tesla shareholders could receive 0.7 SpaceX shares for each Tesla share. Gene Munster of Deepwater Asset Management raised his probability of a deal happening within two years to 95%, while Dan Ives of Yorkville Ives & Co called the combination a “no-brainer” and said Tesla shares would likely need to be priced around $550 for the deal to be approved.
A PwC 2026 outlook noted that companies are securing AI infrastructure and computing power through acquisitions, while a European Commission study found reviewed mergers tended to reduce innovation and increase markups. Whether operational efficiencies would justify the costs and concentration of control remains a key open question.
For the crypto market, the news has no direct token-level impact. However, because Elon Musk remains a prominent figure in the broader digital-asset ecosystem, any major corporate restructuring involving his companies can influence overall risk sentiment, even if the immediate effect on cryptocurrencies is likely limited or neutral.
