Bitcoin’s on-chain profitability has weakened to levels not seen since the depths of the 2022 bear market, even with BTC trading near $82,000 in October 2026. According to on-chain analyst Amr Taha, the 365-day UTXO Block Profit/Loss Count Ratio average dropped to 13.6 on October 22, roughly 14.1% above its November 21, 2022 reading of 11.92, when Bitcoin was changing hands near $16,000.
Cost-basis data highlight sharp differences among holder groups. Binance user deposit addresses have a realized price of about $64,200, leaving BTC around 27.7% above that level, while newer whales hold an average cost basis of $77,120, giving them only a 6.3% cushion at the $82,000 reference point. Miner whales and long-term holder whales have lower realized prices of $51,820 and $46,400, respectively. Taha also noted that Bitcoin’s 30-day realized capitalization change reached $12.93 billion on October 22, below the $40 billion and $64 billion readings from October 2025 and July 2025, both of which preceded a roughly 52% decline. The current figure remains positive, indicating realized capitalization is still expanding.
Separately, analyst Facundo Fama pointed to a more constructive historical signal: Bitcoin’s supply in profit rose in the third quarter of 2026, the first bullish quarter following a downtrend since Q1 2023. In that earlier cycle, supply in profit climbed from 9 million BTC to more than 14 million before a broader uptrend continued through 2025.
Analyst Benjamin Cowen warned that the $83,000 level is a critical short-term pivot. If Bitcoin remains below $83,000, Cowen expects a move toward the bull market support band in the early-to-mid $70,000s. He noted that the Nasdaq has already tested its bull market support band, the S&P 500 has approached it, and crypto indices TOTAL2 and TOTAL3 have tested their 21-week exponential moving averages. Cowen said Bitcoin’s relative resilience has supported its rising dominance, but a daily close below the 50-day moving average would be the first signal of a pullback toward the 21-week EMA. A second weekly close below $83,000 would make defending the bullish scenario difficult. He also cautioned that false breakouts similar to 2015 and 2022 could appear, while US stock market weakness and November 3 midterm election volatility could add pressure.
