Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market could be entering a volatile repricing window ahead of the U.S. midterm elections on November 3, 2026, according to analyst Ali Martinez and a new market outlook from HTX Research. Martinez warned that investors may be overlooking a historical pattern that has repeatedly appeared before significant price drops. During the previous four U.S. midterm election periods, Bitcoin suffered declines of 72% in 2010, 65% in 2014, 52% in 2018, and 27% in 2022. He cautioned that if history repeats itself, BTC could be heading for another major correction.
Martinez highlighted $73,000 as a critical support level, noting that it corresponds to Bitcoin's short-term investor cost basis. In stable bull markets, Bitcoin has often found support around this level after significant corrections. A pullback toward $73,000 could therefore test whether buyers are still willing to defend the overall uptrend. He added that he would wait for signals that selling pressure is weakening and demand is strengthening before buying at that level.
HTX Research released a separate outlook framing the midterms as a potential catalyst for reshaping crypto legislation and regulatory oversight, but argued that macro conditions, financing costs and capital flows remain more important for near-term pricing. The firm's base case expects elevated volatility and selective recovery around the vote, with durable gains requiring stable monetary expectations, renewed spot inflows and policy changes that create executable commercial opportunities.
Using data through October 14, HTX calculated $537.4 million in net outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs and roughly $825.1 million from Ether funds across ten October trading days. Stablecoin market capitalization stood near $303.118 billion in its October 15 snapshot, which HTX interpreted as digital liquidity that has not yet translated into broad marginal demand for risk assets. On the regulatory side, the report noted that the GENIUS Act became law in July 2025, while the Senate's September 15 procedural vote failed to advance H.R. 3633, leaving broader market-structure legislation unresolved. The report also pointed to SEC activity involving custody and tokenized securities.
HTX expects the pre-election period to remain dominated by rate expectations, dollar moves and ETF flows rather than polling headlines. It positions Bitcoin as the clearest macro barometer, while Ethereum and smaller sectors require confirmation through demand, revenue quality, compliance pathways and token value accrual.
