South Korea’s two largest memory-chip makers are heading into a pivotal earnings week with record profits but weakening investor confidence, as the KOSPI fell 1.08% to 5,490.60 in early Seoul trading on Monday and slipped below the 5,500 mark. The benchmark has lost more than 35% from its June peak, with Samsung Electronics down 1.3% and SK Hynix down 0.63%.
Goldman Sachs strategists, including Timothy Moe, cut their 12-month KOSPI target to 9,000 from 12,000 in an October 25 note but still see roughly 62% upside. They argue current valuations are pricing an overly negative fundamental outlook: the benchmark trades at about four times expected earnings, and semiconductor valuations effectively anticipate a 65% drop in 2027 sector earnings, which Goldman considers too severe.
The earnings backdrop is unusually strong. Samsung’s preliminary October 8 guidance projected third-quarter revenue of 195 trillion won and operating profit of 107.4 trillion won. SK Hynix is forecast to report revenue of 98.23 trillion won and operating profit of 76.96 trillion won, according to FnGuide consensus. Yet Samsung and SK Hynix shares ended Friday 18.2% and 25.4% below their September 1 levels, as investors fear AI infrastructure spending could slow before massive investments generate sufficient returns.
Mirae Asset Securities analyst Kim Seok-hwan cautioned that factors such as earnings or long-term supply contracts are already fully reflected in share prices, and even exceptional results may fail to revive stocks if investors believe memory-chip profits are near a cyclical peak. Hana Securities analyst Kim Rok-ho said SK Hynix could have at least 30 trillion won in additional funds available for shareholder returns based on free cash flow, with buybacks and cancellations likely carrying greater weight than dividends.
SK Hynix reports on Wednesday, October 28, followed by Samsung on Thursday, October 29. Shareholder returns will be a major focus. SK Hynix recently completed a 40 trillion won buyback and Samsung finished a 15 trillion won program. SK Hynix confirmed it will announce shareholder return measures with third-quarter results after South Korea’s Dong-A Ilbo reported the company is weighing a special dividend of about 16 trillion won, or roughly $12 billion, funded by gains from the sale of its Kioxia stake. SK Hynix said it is reviewing various shareholder return measures without providing details.
SK Hynix also said it paused the planned U.S. listing of its Solidigm unit because of market volatility, share price trends and concerns about a possible duplicate listing. The stock opened at $137.02 on Monday, well below its 50-day average of $170.08 and its one-year high of $199.87. Analysts remain broadly positive, with price targets ranging from $200 to $320 and a consensus Buy rating.
While the reports do not name any cryptocurrency assets, the AI-hardware supply chain remains a closely watched risk-sentiment indicator for broader technology and digital-asset markets.
