Glassnode warned that long-term Bitcoin holders are sitting on roughly 4 million BTC bought between $85,000 and $118,000, mostly in 2025, and this supply overhang could cap any recovery attempt.
Bitcoin traded near $81,400 on Thursday, up about 1.2% over 24 hours but still roughly 35% below its all-time high of $126,080. According to Glassnode, more than half of all long-term-holder coins were acquired above the current price, making the $84,000–$85,000 zone a stubborn resistance level that has turned Bitcoin back four times this year. The cryptocurrency has closed above $85,000 on only five days since January and last broke above it in September, peaking at $87,100.
Spot Bitcoin ETF holders are also near break-even. Glassnode estimates the average purchase price of U.S. spot ETFs at about $81,500, while Bloomberg Intelligence analyst James Seyffart put the figure just under $82,000. Seyffart estimated ETF holders faced an average unrealized loss of roughly $2.63 billion as of Monday, noting the calculation tracks fund flows rather than secondary-market buyer prices.
The Federal Reserve held its benchmark rate at 3.75% to 4.00% on Wednesday in a 10-2 vote, with Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack dissenting in favor of a hike. Traders had placed the odds of another quarter-point December hike above 70% before the decision. HashKey senior researcher Tim Sun said a December hike was partly priced in, but argued that persistently high U.S. Treasury yields and real interest rates are the bigger constraint on Bitcoin because they raise the opportunity cost of holding risk assets.
The 10-year Treasury yield stood just under 5% at midday Thursday, down from 5.05% at Wednesday's close and a 52-week high of 5.37% on October 7. Sun added that lower funding rates on Bitcoin perpetual futures have squeezed cash-and-carry arbitrage returns. Galaxy Research found that nine hedge funds and banks cut 68,000 BTC worth of spot ETF exposure as that trade dried up, while wealth platforms and sovereign funds added.
ETF flows have improved this week, with U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs taking in about $424 million from Monday to Wednesday, following $635 million in outflows on October 22. Still, Glassnode and Sun expect any rally above $85,000 to face selling pressure from long-term holders trying to break even. On the downside, Glassnode pointed to about $42 million in bids between $78,000 and $79,000 on Binance, and the average cost basis of newer buyers at $75,800. Sun expects Bitcoin to trade between $75,000 and $85,000 in the short term until macro liquidity improves and ETFs resume sustained net inflows.
Glassnode noted that realized losses have diminished with each dip since August, suggesting the core issue is not panic selling but insufficient new buying interest to support a sustained recovery.
