Intel Corp. (INTC) heads into its third-quarter earnings report after the closing bell on October 29, with options traders positioning for a sharp post-earnings move and Wall Street divided on the semiconductor giant’s next phase.
According to derivatives data, the put-to-call ratio for INTC options expiring November 6 stands at 0.67, a bullish signal below the 1.00 threshold. Barchart data sets the upper price for those contracts around $102, implying a potential rally of more than 9% through the end of next week if the sentiment plays out. A separate options-based estimate points to a swing of up to 8% by the end of the week, potentially lifting shares toward $103 or pulling them below $88.
Analysts expect Intel to report third-quarter revenue of roughly $16.4 billion to $16.5 billion, up about 20% to 21% year over year. Adjusted earnings per share forecasts range from 39 cents to 41 cents, compared with 23 cents a share in the year-ago quarter. The stock closed at $95.53 ahead of the release, up approximately 159% year to date but down 32% from its June 22 record high. Another estimate cited in pre-earnings coverage put the year-to-date gain at about 135%.
BofA Securities analyst Vivek Arya expects Intel to beat estimates and raise its outlook, pointing to rising average selling prices for CPUs and steady demand for processors that power AI servers. BofA rates the stock a Buy with a $145 price target. In contrast, UBS analyst Timothy Arcuri kept a Neutral rating and lowered his price target to $103 from $112, although he said the revenue setup “remains quite strong.”
Needham analysts maintain a Hold rating despite acknowledging that Intel’s planned $2.3 billion acquisition of quantum software firm Classiq complements its silicon spin-qubit hardware and production capabilities. The firm cautioned that Intel’s AI accelerators remain relatively less competitive and that continued data-center CPU share losses may weigh on the stock, especially at a valuation of about 83 times forward earnings.
Investors will also watch for commentary on Intel’s foundry business and its work with Tesla and SpaceX on the Terafab AI chip venture. Recent reports said Elon Musk floated potential breakthroughs in chip fabrication, but earlier this month Intel shares slid after Musk signaled talks with Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. to help run Terafab. Management’s outlook on margins, cash generation, spending discipline, and customer commitments is expected to determine whether the stock can sustain its 2026 momentum into 2027.
