Crypto analysts are warning that Bitcoin may be entering the final leg of a major drawdown, with two separate outlooks pointing to further short-term downside before a potential cycle bottom.
During a live broadcast, analyst Benjamin Cowen said Bitcoin's decline has brought the price to the 21-week exponential moving average around $76,612, with BTC trading near $76,642. He identified the bull market support band between $73,000 and $77,000 as a key zone for short-term direction, but stressed that support is not guaranteed.
Two scenarios for a bottom Cowen outlined two possible paths. The first could be a sharp capitulation similar to the 2022 FTX crash, when Bitcoin lost roughly 24-25% in two days. If panic selling returns, Bitcoin could form a cycle bottom before the US midterm elections or in late October. The second scenario would see Bitcoin bounce from current support toward $79,000-$80,000, followed by another decline and final bottom after the midterm elections. He cited post-midterm drops in 2014, 2018, and 2022 as historical parallels, while noting that 2026 could be different if selling pressure begins before the vote.
Cowen also highlighted technical and timing signals: consecutive weekly closes below the previous peak could indicate a false upside breakout, and past cycles bottomed on days 1,432 to 1,436, while the current cycle is on day 1,439. He said a capitulation-style surge in trading volume has not yet appeared, which has accompanied major bottoms in 2015, 2018, and 2022.
Dollar strength threatens the debasement trade Connection Capital founder Dan Krupka offered a macro warning, arguing that a rising US dollar could undermine the dollar debasement trade that has supported Bitcoin and gold. He noted that the US Dollar Index is near 102 after gaining since September, while Bitcoin trades around $77,500. Krupka said pressure on the euro and Japanese yen from rising energy prices could push the dollar higher, in turn dragging Bitcoin, gold and broader markets lower in the coming months.
Krupka emphasized that Bitcoin's fixed supply of 21 million does not guarantee gains when global liquidity tightens. A stronger dollar can make dollar-denominated assets more expensive for foreign investors and reduce appetite for speculative positions. He said the dollar's recent resilience is important because the euro and yen account for a substantial portion of the DXY. The index closed around 101.85 on October 29, up from 101.45 at the end of September.
Cowen added that news of a Binance attack and a roughly 9% pullback in the Nasdaq may be adding to selling pressure, noting that stock market corrections and crypto declines have coincided in past cycles. He also expects the US dollar to remain strong until year-end and said other crypto assets, including Ethereum, could bottom near-term similar to Bitcoin. If the current decline resolves like prior cycles, Cowen said a new bull run could begin in 2027, though he does not expect a 77% drawdown comparable to 2022.
