Bitcoin is approaching a major derivatives test as roughly 135,000 BTC in options contracts—worth about $10.9 billion to $11 billion in notional value—expire on Deribit at 08:00 UTC on Friday, October 30, 2026. The batch represents about a third of all Bitcoin options open interest on the exchange and is roughly 70% larger than the $6.4 billion expiry seen in August.
According to Deribit data, the expiring contracts include about 88,700 calls and 46,500 puts, giving a put-to-call ratio near 0.52 to 0.53. That means call contracts outnumber puts almost two to one, signaling generally optimistic positioning. However, roughly 86% of the contracts are out of the money at current prices. If the market were to settle near current levels, only about $130 million in value would move—around 1% of the headline notional amount.
Max pain for the expiry sits at $78,000, below the levels Bitcoin traded earlier in the week. BTC climbed as high as $81,700 after the Federal Reserve held interest rates at 3.75% to 4.00% on Wednesday, but later slid toward $76,000 following reports of a $6.3 billion hack on Binance. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was changing hands just above $78,000, down about 6% over the past month and roughly 38% below its all-time high above $126,000.
The largest call positioning is clustered at $95,000 and $100,000 strike prices, well above spot, while the largest put cluster sits between $70,000 and $75,000. In addition, Ethereum options with a notional value of $776 million expire alongside Bitcoin, with max pain at $2,500 and a put/call ratio of 0.77. ETH was trading near $2,200, below that max pain level.
Market watcher Dennis Liu noted heavier put buying for the November 6 expiry, suggesting traders are paying for downside protection into midterm week. He placed the expected trading range for today's expiry between $77,600 and $82,400, widening to $75,200 to $85,100 for November 6. Liu also pointed to a more optimistic longer-term curve, with 1.7 calls per put for November 27 and 1.5 for December 25, adding that he does not expect a weekly close below $75,000.
The next large Bitcoin options expiry is due December 25, with about 135,500 BTC in contracts already open.
