XRP traded near $1.25 on Friday after a sharp overnight flush to $1.20, a move accelerated by reports that Binance suffered a $6.3 billion hack, the largest in crypto history. The rebound came on volume of 73.79 million XRP on the Binance XRP/USDT daily chart, but XRP remains below its 50-day, 100-day and 200-day moving averages. The 14-day RSI sits at 37.44, below its signal line and the 50 midline, indicating sellers still control the higher-timeframe trend.
Analyst CasiTrades warned that the correction could still deepen before any larger rally. She noted XRP lost the local 0.618 Fibonacci support near $1.27 and is now attempting to stabilize around $1.20. Her next key downside level is approximately $1.10, with a Fibonacci level near $1.0937. If that area holds, she believes the larger Elliott Wave structure remains intact. A deeper flush could revisit the $0.94 to $0.87 region, where she has a personal spot order around $0.94 after previously buying near the $1.10 macro Fibonacci area. A new low below about $0.98 would reset the current wave count and delay the expected Wave 3 advance.
The daily chart shows XRP moving inside a descending parallel channel that has defined price action since the $1.70 August peak. The broken golden pocket near $1.26, the 200-day SMA at $1.2780, and the 100-day SMA at $1.3012 now form a wall of overhead resistance. A daily close above $1.30 would turn the breakdown into a bear trap and could squeeze shorts toward the channel ceiling near $1.32 to $1.34, followed by the 50-day SMA at $1.39. A close below the $1.26 to $1.27 band would leave the bounce as a retest and open a slide back toward $1.20; a break below that level exposes the 0.786 Fibonacci at $1.1426.
CasiTrades maintains a longer-term bullish interpretation, viewing the decline as a Wave 2 correction that could eventually set up a stronger Wave 3 rally, but she stresses that the bullish move has not started yet. For now, $1.10 is the next major test. If XRP falls below $0.98, the timeline for recovery becomes much less clear.
