Bitcoin demonstrated notable resilience at the start of November, closing above its 50-week moving average for a seventh consecutive week, according to data highlighted by Poloniex Exchange. The sustained technical strength comes despite a difficult October and a major security shock: the $6.4 billion hack of Binance, the world's largest crypto exchange by trading volume.
On Monday, Bitcoin rebounded above $78,200 after finding support near the $76,100 level, recovering from last week's selloff. Ethereum and XRP also showed early signs of recovery, though the broader market remains cautious. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $643 million in net outflows on Friday, their first trading session after the Binance hack, underscoring the initial reaction from traditional investors.
Technical indicators suggest the recovery is not yet confirmed. Bitcoin remains below its 50-day exponential moving average at $80,307, which acts as the first major resistance. The daily Relative Strength Index is hovering around 40, below the neutral 50 mark, while the MACD remains in negative territory. Support sits at the 100-day EMA near $77,831 and the 200-day EMA around $76,471. A decisive move above $80,307 could open a path toward $85,000, while a break below $76,471 would weaken the broader technical structure.
Nick Forster, founder and CEO of Derive.xyz, said market expectations for Bitcoin's year-end price have shifted lower. "Last Wednesday, Derive options were pricing a 6% probability of Bitcoin exceeding $100K by Christmas. That has now fallen to just 3.5%, or roughly a one-in-30 chance," Forster said. The probability of Bitcoin exceeding $90K by December 25 is now just 14%, while the chance of it being above $80K stands at 44%.
Adding to the backdrop, Binance was able to freeze some of the stolen assets with help from Tether and Circle. Meanwhile, regulatory developments continue to draw attention: Senator Cynthia Lummis is pushing the CLARITY Act, which has passed the House and the Senate Banking Committee but still faces legislative hurdles. Michael Saylor also hinted at further Bitcoin purchases, describing the asset as "digital energy."
