Gold and silver’s Monday rebound lost momentum on Tuesday, with spot gold trading near $3,921 an ounce on November 3, down about 0.65% on the day, after surging more than 2% on Monday to around $3,957. Silver also outperformed on Monday with a roughly 3.7% advance to about $50.91, but the broader recovery stalled below key resistance as macro headwinds returned.
The initial bounce followed reports of progress toward a US-Iran deal and a sharp drop in oil prices. Brent crude settled 7.6% lower at $104.77 on Monday, easing inflation concerns and reducing the probability of another Federal Reserve rate hike in December to around 77% from about 80% a week earlier. Watcher.Guru noted that gold and silver added roughly $440 billion in combined market value amid the diplomatic headlines.
However, strong US factory data capped the rebound. The ISM manufacturing PMI for October came in at 55.5 versus 54.7 expected, and the prices-paid index reached 75.2, supporting the case for tighter Fed policy. The 10-year Treasury yield sat near 4.90%, while markets priced about a 75% chance of a December rate hike. The fed funds rate stands at 4.00% and September CPI inflation was 3.7%.
Oil also stopped falling after the Wall Street Journal reported, citing US officials, that the US struck Iran’s Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz. Brent rose about 0.5% to $105.25 in early Asian trading. KCM Trade chief market analyst Tim Waterer said the report “added a degree of risk premium back into the oil price,” which in turn weighed on gold’s inflation-sensitive appeal.
Pepperstone strategist Dilin Wu said gold attracted speculative buying after last week’s one-year low of $3,870.27, but warned that “the technical structure has been severely damaged” by the breaks below $4,000 and $3,900. Analysts quoted by Mitrade said gold must reclaim and hold $4,000 before downside pressure eases. Gold ETF holdings were still shrinking, suggesting Monday’s rise was more short-covering than new money.
Key support levels sit at $3,885–$3,904, then $3,829–$3,849 and $3,780–$3,800. Resistance is seen at $3,971–$3,982, $4,074–$4,083, and $4,104–$4,115. Trading Economics models project gold near $3,815 by the end of the quarter and about $3,530 in 12 months.
For crypto markets, the macro setup remains relevant: softer rate expectations can support risk assets, but strong ISM data, elevated yields and renewed oil uncertainty keep tightening risk alive. Markets are watching the US midterm elections, JOLTS job openings, and Friday’s October payrolls as the next catalysts for Fed policy and broader risk sentiment.
