Prediction markets are rapidly evolving beyond standalone event contracts, as platforms integrate derivatives trading and brokerage infrastructure to capture a larger share of user activity. Two recent developments highlight this trend: Outpoll has expanded into perpetual futures trading, while Polymarket received a key regulatory approval that moves it closer to operating its own futures brokerage.
Outpoll now combines prediction markets and perpetual futures under a single account and shared balance. Its futures service launched in October 2026, offering more than 80 cryptocurrency pairs, over 20 stock- and index-linked instruments, and four commodity pairs. Traders can access leverage up to 100x, isolated and cross margin, and hedge mode for simultaneous long and short positions. The platform supports market, limit, and stop-market orders, take-profit and stop-loss controls, TradingView charts, and an estimated liquidation price calculator. Outpoll also provides a public REST and WebSocket API for algorithmic traders.
Its prediction markets cover politics, economics, cryptocurrencies, sports, and culture, using binary YES/NO contracts settled in USDC. Contracts are fully collateralized, with resolution rules published for each market. Outpoll includes a news section tied to individual markets, a rewards hub with cashback in its Outpoll Token, an Android app, and multilingual support across eight languages. The platform operates on a CeDeFi model and follows a risk-based KYC approach, but it has not yet published independently verified trading volumes or audit details.
Polymarket, meanwhile, has secured approval from the National Futures Association for its affiliate PM Derivatives LLC to operate as a futures commission merchant (FCM), subject to final CFTC registration. The company already controls a CFTC-registered designated contract market (Polymarket US) and a derivatives clearing organization (Polymarket Clearing) through its $112 million acquisition of QCX LLC in 2025. PM Derivatives intends to operate on a fully collateralized basis, matching its clearinghouse's existing authorization for fully collateralized futures, options on futures, and swaps. CEO Nikhil Joshi described the NFA decision as a "foundational step."
The FCM registration would allow Polymarket to intermediate customer orders and hold customer funds, giving it more control over onboarding, funding, and order routing. This vertical integration is a response to competitive pressure from Kalshi, which dominates non-sports prediction-market volume through distribution partnerships with brokerages like Robinhood. Polymarket remains under CFTC scrutiny regarding its 2022 settlement and state-level gambling law challenges, so the NFA approval marks progress rather than completion of its U.S. expansion.
Both platforms are leveraging regulatory compliance and product breadth to attract traders who want event-based exposure alongside leveraged price speculation. The growing convergence of prediction markets and derivatives infrastructure signals a broader institutionalization of event trading within the crypto industry.
