Bitcoin's attempted recovery stalled on November 5, 2026, as a sharp slide in US equities erased the post-election bounce and renewed selling pressure across risk assets. The S&P 500 dropped 1.7%, led lower by technology shares, while Bitcoin retreated toward the $77,000 level. The move followed a volatile stretch in which BTC initially rebounded from a nearly seven-week low near $75,600 after uncertainty over the US midterm results, then tapped $81,000 before losing traction and dumping back to around $76,000.
CryptoQuant data suggests the pullback may not be finished. The Bitcoin Cycle Extremes Index has fallen to 15.8% on its 30-day moving average, placing it in the Watch / Mild Pressure zone. Bitcoin remains roughly 46% below its previous all-time high. Unlike the sharp cycle-intensity spikes seen in 2021 and during the 2024-2025 advance, current conditions are subdued. The Cycle Extreme Oscillator is sitting near the bottom of its historical range and remains well below the 1.0 threshold. CryptoQuant said there is "little evidence of a decisive cycle-extreme signal," and warned: "The indicators suggest Bitcoin is in a corrective, subdued phase rather than at a confirmed cycle bottom. Further consolidation, or another downward leg, remains possible before a durable recovery develops."
Analyst Bren echoed the cautious tone, saying Bitcoin could fall back to its $56,000 bear-market low before a stronger recovery takes hold. He expects a bullish first half of 2027 and a potential new all-time high that year.
On the institutional side, US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded their first November inflows on the 4th, pulling in $74.57 million after three consecutive days of outflows. Still, October ended with more than half a billion dollars in outflows, and November has seen another $439.61 million leave the funds so far. Separately, Switzerland approved its first Bitcoin ETF open to retail investors, giving ordinary investors regulated direct BTC exposure without managing wallets or private keys.
