IREN Limited shares extended their sharp sell-off on Thursday, falling toward $18.30 ahead of fiscal first-quarter results after the closing bell. The decline followed an 11.24% drop on Wednesday, when the stock closed at $21.71, down $2.75. By late Thursday morning, IREN had traded as low as about $18.03, far below its 2025 high of $76.63 and its lowest level since August.
The pressure intensified after The Information reported that delays at IREN's Childress data-center campus contributed to Microsoft spending less on third-party data-center capacity during its September quarter. Microsoft had previously disclosed $45.2 billion in capital expenditure, citing delayed capacity from some providers, but had not named IREN. The precise shortfall attributable to IREN has not been disclosed, but investors are now looking for clarity on whether the four 50-megawatt Horizon deployments under the approximately $9.7 billion, five-year Microsoft contract remain on schedule.
Wall Street expectations for the September quarter range from $219.95 million to $229.81 million in revenue, a sharp sequential increase from $137.2 million in fiscal Q4. The June quarter still reflected IREN's transition away from Bitcoin mining: AI cloud revenue was $70.5 million, while Bitcoin mining contributed $66.7 million. IREN said in August that Horizon 1 was accepted and that it had about $1 billion of operating annualized run-rate revenue, with more than $4 billion of contracted ARR expected to be operating by the end of December once Horizons 2 through 4 are delivered.
Adding to the pressure, Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani maintained a Buy rating but cut his IREN price target by 45%, from $100 to $55, citing uncertainty around grid connection approvals in Texas and higher borrowing costs for AI infrastructure. Management had already guided for a $40 million to $50 million sequential increase in first-quarter cash selling, general and administrative expenses. The broader neocloud and mining complex also sold off after the U.S. midterm elections, with CoreWeave, Nebius, Riot Platforms, HIVE Digital, MARA Holdings and Cipher Digital all falling by double digits earlier in the week.
Technically, IREN shares have broken below the neckline of a bearish head-and-shoulders pattern around $33.34 and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level near $33.30, with the Supertrend indicator still negative. The next important support is seen near the psychological $20 level. Broader concerns also weigh on the sector: Gartner has warned that AI data-center owners may need to book large impairments, estimating required revenues through 2030 at $8.5 trillion versus expected enterprise and consumer AI revenue of less than $3.6 trillion. Altimeter Capital CEO Brad Gerstner separately said on the All-In Podcast that 10 to 15 gigawatts of expected U.S. data-center capacity could fail to come online on schedule if permitting restrictions intensify.
