HYPE Risks $70 Test as Hyperliquid Strategies Awaits U.S. FCM Approval

2 hour ago 2 sources neutral

Key takeaways:

  • Hyperliquid's FCM bid may expand HYPE demand, but months-long approval risks near-term sentiment.
  • Treasury buying of 38.9M HYPE cushions dips, yet falling below $74.45 could overwhelm support.
  • PURR's 9.6% drop signals weak sentiment, so traders should watch HYPE's 200-day average near $69.40.

Hyperliquid Strategies, the Nasdaq-listed treasury firm that holds HYPE as its primary asset, has filed with U.S. regulators to become a futures commission merchant (FCM). The application, announced amid a broad crypto selloff, could eventually allow a subsidiary to serve American clients trading permissioned HIP-3 markets built on Hyperliquid. The company gave no guarantee on timing or outcome.

Third-quarter results underscored how central HYPE has become to the firm. Revenue reached $13.3 million, above analyst estimates of $10.6 million to $12 million, with staking and validator commissions contributing $12.3 million. Unrealized gains on HYPE of $803.0 million lifted net income to $620.6 million. During the quarter, Hyperliquid Strategies spent $785 million to buy 9.1 million tokens. By Oct. 28, it held 38.9 million HYPE at a blended cost of $56.35 per token. Chief executive David Schamis called the token buying and the FCM plan "the same bet."

Markets shrugged at the news on Nov. 5. Shares of PURR fell 9.6% to $8.76, while HYPE dropped about 7% the same day. The token traded near $77.62 at last check, up about 1% over 24 hours but still below its 50-day moving average near $82.41. The longer-term 200-day moving average sits near $69.40, a key level that could decide whether the broader uptrend survives. HYPE has fallen roughly 13% over seven days and about 16% over the past month, even as the company kept adding tokens.

Technical indicators show sellers still hold momentum. RSI sits at 41, weak but not oversold, while MACD remains below its signal line. Support sits near $74.45; a daily close below that could open the path to the 200-day average and then deeper support near $63.77. On the upside, resistance near $82.61 and $84.64 will likely be tested together. Until HYPE reclaims the 50-day line, rallies may remain shallow.

The FCM license could widen HYPE’s reach to U.S. traders, but approval may take months. A slow regulatory review or another leg of the wider crypto selloff could drag HYPE toward its 200-day average faster than corporate buying can absorb.

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