Bitcoin enters Friday's US October jobs report at $76,160, down 5.1% in 24 hours and trading below its 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) for the first time since August 19. Thursday's chip-stock sell-off dragged BTC from $80,918 to $75,208, its lowest level since September 16, while the Crypto Fear & Greed Index fell from 50 to 28 in a single day.
The 8:30 a.m. ET employment release could shape Federal Reserve rate expectations. Polymarket traders now price a 69% chance of a rate hike on December 9, down from 80% a day earlier. Kalshi's odds of a December hold rose from 22% to 32%. The Fed held rates at 3.75%–4% on October 28 in a 10–2 vote, with both dissenters favoring a quarter-point hike.
A review of all 104 jobs reports since January 2018 shows Bitcoin was higher 24 hours later in exactly 52 cases. However, it fell after each of the last three weekly periods: down 3.3% in August, 5.2% in September, and 3.7% in October. The October 2025 report was never published due to a government shutdown.
Bybit cautioned that the jobs report could trigger significant market volatility, noting that the crypto market has been unpredictable since the midterm elections. Traders should brace for rapid shifts in sentiment and reassess strategies accordingly.
Key technical levels include resistance at $76,540 (200-day EMA), then $79,839 (50-day EMA), and $81,196 (Wednesday's high). Support sits at $75,208, then $74,968, and $72,598 (0.5 Fibonacci retracement). A daily close back above $76,540 could target $79,839, while a close below $74,968 may open the path to $72,598. For many traders, the weekly close against the 200-day EMA will matter more than the payroll number itself.
