Brent crude futures traded near $96.45 a barrel on Monday, down $1.87 or 1.9% from Friday's settlement of $98.32, after President Donald Trump said new U.S. attacks on Iran were highly unlikely while diplomatic talks progressed. Last week Brent fell 16%, its steepest weekly drop since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic.
Early trading was volatile. Brent opened near $97.50, briefly touched $98.35 by 04:27 GMT, then slipped to between $96.55 and $97.01. West Texas Intermediate fell between 0.7% and 1.2%, trading around $89.78 to $90.17. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the talks had made little headway and that a deal was not close, while Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said discussions had made no progress.
Shipping risks kept a floor under uncertainty. The UK Maritime Trade Operations reported two Sunday incidents: a tanker struck by an unidentified projectile in the Strait of Hormuz and a fire aboard a tanker about eight nautical miles northwest of Khasab, Oman. Iranian media claimed no ships crossed the strait on Sunday and that navigation aids were destroyed. Houthi militants also claimed an attempted strike on Saudi Aramco's Riyadh office, though Saudi officials said only windows were damaged.
Macroeconomic catalysts lie ahead. JPMorgan estimated a global oil surplus of 1.1 million barrels per day in September, widening to 1.4 million in October. U.S. October CPI is due Tuesday, followed by OPEC's monthly report on Wednesday. CME FedWatch indicated an 81% chance of a December rate hike, meaning a hot CPI report could strengthen the dollar and pressure commodities and risk assets.
Technical levels include support at $93.22 to $93.52 and resistance at $104.16. Iraq said it reached an understanding with Washington to move crude through a designated lane near Oman, with exports rising to about 3.5 million barrels per day in October. The news has no direct cryptocurrency-specific trigger, but oil and rate expectations can influence broad crypto risk sentiment.
