Elon Musk used an appearance at the Baron Investment Conference in New York to lay out an aggressive fourth-quarter revenue outlook for SpaceX, while also addressing the company’s early move into Bitcoin. The chief executive projected that SpaceX’s fourth-quarter sales would rise roughly 70% from the third quarter’s already elevated base of about $14.6 billion, pushing quarterly revenue near $24.8 billion—about $2 billion above Wall Street estimates.
The projection follows SpaceX’s October-reported third-quarter results, when revenue rose 161% year over year to approximately $14.6 billion and the company swung to a $4.4 billion profit. Within that total, the artificial-intelligence segment now branded Super Intelligence generated roughly $7.6 billion, overtaking the Starlink-led connectivity business at about $5.2 billion. Government contract revenue, which represented 16.6% of the most recent quarter, is expected to fall below 10% in the current period. SpaceX also continues to target an annualized revenue run rate above $100 billion by the end of this year, with a suggested figure above $500 billion by the close of 2027, though Musk described the longer-term view as a best estimate rather than a formal commitment.
Tesla, by contrast, reported third-quarter revenue of about $28 billion, essentially flat from a year earlier, while net income declined as research and capital spending rose sharply. The company is channeling incremental investment into autonomous driving, robotaxi development, and humanoid robotics. Full Self-Driving adoption has expanded, and limited unsupervised robotaxi operations have begun in select cities, but commercial contributions are expected to become more visible next year.
Both companies were among the earlier large technology and industrial firms to place Bitcoin on their balance sheets. Tesla holds roughly 11,500 coins; SpaceX disclosed approximately 18,700 coins at listing. Combined, the holdings were valued near $2.5 billion at the end of September. Relative to Tesla’s market capitalization around $1.4 trillion, the Bitcoin position represents well under one-tenth of one percent of equity value. SpaceX’s post-listing valuation is also measured in the high hundreds of billions to low trillions, making its digital-asset stake similarly modest. The positions do not appear central to either company’s operating or capital plans.
In Friday trading, SpaceX stock closed at $134.27, up 9% and just below its $135 IPO price. The bounce followed a 9% drop on Thursday after Democrats won the U.S. House, Senate, and Texas governorship, raising investor concerns about tighter rules on data center construction and electricity use. Musk gave more than $445 million to Republican candidates and political groups this year, with more than $200 million directed to Texas.
On Mad Money, Jim Cramer called the SpaceX bull case “incredibly compelling,” but said he is not buying yet. He highlighted third-quarter adjusted EBITDA growth of 306% to $8.8 billion, but noted that Anthropic alone accounted for more than a third of last quarter’s sales and that customer contracts can be cancelled with 90 days’ notice. He also pointed to fourth-quarter capital spending projections of $35 billion to $40 billion, nearly double analyst expectations, and a $40 billion financing deal with Apollo that may not cover every need. Cramer’s biggest concern is the supply of stock: only about one-third of shares trade freely, with more lockup expirations due within eight months. “I simply think that I’ll be able to get a better price for SpaceX as all that supply hits the market,” he said.
Wall Street remains more upbeat, with a Strong Buy consensus based on 28 Buys, 5 Holds, and 1 Sell over the past three months. The average 12-month price target is $253.57, roughly 89% above Friday’s close.
