Trade Desk (TTD) shares surged 15.5% to $14.93 on Monday, marking their biggest one-day gain since March 5, after the ad tech company reported third-quarter results that easily beat Wall Street expectations and issued fourth-quarter guidance above consensus.
For Q3 2026, Trade Desk posted adjusted earnings of $0.33 per share, compared with the $0.25 FactSet consensus estimate. Revenue came in at $736 million, down 0.5% year over year, but well above the $650.9 million analysts had penciled in. Adjusted EBITDA was $266 million, exceeding the $161 million estimate, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 36%.
Management said stronger execution helped results come in better than planned, and highlighted new AI-driven tools including Zuma and Audience Unlimited. The company also said customer retention remained above 95%.
For the fourth quarter, Trade Desk expects revenue of at least $755 million, far above the $688 million consensus, and adjusted EBITDA of at least $280 million. The guidance is framed as a floor rather than a fixed target.
Despite the beat, some analysts flagged underlying pressures. Jefferies noted that excluding political advertising and one-time items, third-quarter revenue fell 8.5%, compared with a 3.0% gain in Q2, and said the Q4 guide implies an 18% drop excluding political ads. Rosenblatt also expects revenue declines to accelerate in the fourth quarter.
Trade Desk cut about 15% of its workforce in September, a move Truist estimated could save up to $150 million annually. The company is also repairing its relationship with Publicis, which previously represented a mid-teens percentage of revenue before a dispute shifted some business to Google. Competition from Amazon and Google remains a pressure point, and StoneX called 2026 a "lost year."
In a notable leadership move, co-founder Dave Pickles is returning after stepping aside in 2023. CEO Jeff Green said Pickles’ "experience, technical judgment and deep understanding of our platform" would help shape the next generation of advertising technology.
Analysts reacted positively. Jefferies raised its target to $14 from $12 and kept a Hold rating. Truist lifted its target to $17, also with a Hold. UBS maintained a Buy rating and a $15 target, while Kyro AI data showed an average analyst target of $18. The company also approved $731 million in stock repurchases, with $269 million previously available.
Technically, TTD has formed an island reversal pattern, a bullish chart formation, with RSI and MACD indicators pointing upward. Some analysts see a potential move toward $20, while a drop below $11.60 support would invalidate the bullish view. Even after the jump, TTD shares remain down 60.7% in 2026, though November has brought a 21.5% gain.
