Nebius Group shares dropped 17.72% to $127.58 on Thursday despite reporting third-quarter revenue of $980.8 million, up 571% year over year from $146.1 million. The decline more than erased Wednesday's 15.44% rally to $154.69, as investors focused on weaker 2026 guidance, delayed data center capacity and a significantly larger capital spending plan.
The company beat published revenue estimates by roughly $44 million to $74 million. Adjusted EBITDA reached $465.8 million, compared with a $5.2 million loss a year earlier, and adjusted net income was $90.9 million. However, management disclosed that about $325 million of quarterly revenue was non-recurring, tied to the initial rollout of its asset-light partnership model.
Nebius now expects full-year 2026 revenue at the low end of its $3 billion to $3.4 billion range, citing delays at third-party colocation facilities. Capacity previously expected before the end of 2026 is now scheduled for the first half of 2027, including Microsoft-related New Jersey capacity where the company is transitioning electricity supply to Bloom Energy fuel cells. More than half of contracted Microsoft capacity is still expected by year-end, with the remainder moved to Q2 2027.
Annualized run-rate revenue reached $6.4 billion at end-September, but the target of exceeding $7 billion has been pushed from December to February 2027. Looking further ahead, Nebius issued a 2027 revenue outlook of $12 billion to $13 billion and raised 2026 capital expenditure guidance to about $27 billion, with 2027 spending projected at $40 billion to $45 billion. Q3 capital purchases reached $7.3 billion, up 664% year over year.
The market reaction reflects execution and delivery risks rather than weak demand. Customers have committed more than $12 billion in contract value since the start of Q3, and prepayments now cover more than 100% of associated capex, but revenue recognition depends on bringing capacity online on schedule.
