Bitcoin’s sharp sell-off has placed a rare market-bottom indicator in focus, with the cryptocurrency nursing a weekly loss of more than 15%. According to analyst Darkfost, if the decline holds through the weekly close, it would mark only the 45th weekly drop of 15% or more in Bitcoin’s history, representing about 5.2% of all weekly periods. The last comparable weekly decline occurred approximately four years ago.
Bitcoin traded near $64,031.19 on November 15, down from roughly $84,000 in mid-October. The four-hour chart remains bearish, with lower highs and lower lows intact. The Relative Strength Index stood at 21.03, well below the 30 oversold threshold, while MACD momentum remained negative. Immediate support levels are seen near $64,000, $62,000 and $60,000, with recovery hurdles at $68,000 and $72,000.
Darkfost also reported that Bitcoin’s MVRV score triggered a market-bottom alert after falling below 1.2. The MVRV ratio compares Bitcoin’s market capitalization with its realized capitalization, helping gauge whether the market is overvalued or undervalued. Glassnode data indicates that a reading below 1 means Bitcoin trades below the network’s average cost basis, while readings below 0.8 have appeared during severe stress near major cycle lows. This is the third such alert during the current bear market: the first appeared in February after Bitcoin crossed $60,000, and the second occurred between June and July when BTC reached $57,000. Before this cycle, the last MVRV bottom alert came in 2022, when Bitcoin traded between $16,000 and $21,000.
Darkfost said dollar-cost averaging at current levels seems reasonable, while noting that the alert adjusts over time to account for MVRV’s long-term decline. Other market watchers caution that no single signal marks a definitive bottom. Sentiment indicators such as the Crypto Fear and Greed Index below 20 can show extreme fear, but bearish conditions can persist for months. Analysts also track liquidation volumes against open interest, Bitcoin’s MVRV and RSI momentum, price structure, and spot ETF flows for confirmation of returning institutional demand.
