Over the Labor Day weekend, rumors about former President Donald Trump's death ignited a speculative frenzy on Web3 prediction markets, resulting in over $1.5 million in bets placed on platforms Polymarket and Kalshi. The speculation began when Trump maintained an unusually low public profile after his August 26th Cabinet meeting, leading to viral searches for terms like "is Trump dead" and "Trump dead" on Google Trends by August 30th.
The rumors were ultimately dispelled when Trump made a public appearance on September 2nd, calling the situation "sort of crazy." Despite this, the prediction markets saw significant activity, with more than half of the wagers focusing on scenarios that could indirectly relate to his death or departure from office. The platforms experienced a temporary surge in Total Value Locked (TVL) due to increased usage of ETH and USDC for betting purposes.
Notably, Donald Trump Jr. serves as an advisor to both Polymarket and Kalshi, providing them with a perceived regulatory shield. The incident has sparked debate about the ethical boundaries of prediction markets and their vulnerability to media rumors and speculation, though broader crypto market impacts remained minimal with the global market cap actually rising 0.89% during this period.
