TRUMP Meme Coin Volatility Intensifies as Whale Activity and Technical Divergence Shape Price Outlook

The TRUMP meme coin has captured market attention with a nearly 24% price surge this month, fueled by significant whale accumulation and political developments. Data from CryptoQuant reveals large bets on TRUMP across spot and futures markets, with trading volumes reaching $675 million—nearly half of the token's circulating supply. This activity coincides with former President Trump's proposal to issue $2,000 checks to Americans using tariff revenue, adding bullish sentiment.

Technical analysis indicates TRUMP broke out of a falling wedge, holding above the $7 support level and testing resistance at $9.5, aligned with the 200-day EMA. A decisive move above this could trigger a rally toward $15, representing a potential 101% gain. The RSI remains above the signal line, supporting buyer dominance.

However, contrasting data shows TRUMP's correlation with Bitcoin at -0.44, suggesting it often moves inversely to BTC. This decoupling could pressure TRUMP if Bitcoin rallies in Q4, as historical trends indicate. Funding rates reflect short-position dominance, signaling trader skepticism, though the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator near -10.0 hints at a possible short-term bounce. TRUMP currently trades at $7.86 within an ascending wedge—a typically bearish pattern—with risks of a breakdown to $6.24 or a surge to $9.00 depending on market dynamics.