Bitcoin On-Chain Data Signals Potential Rebound After Recent Downturn

Following a significant downturn that saw Bitcoin (BTC) plunge to the $80,000 mark on November 21, the leading cryptocurrency has stabilized above this critical threshold for several days, sparking speculation about a potential local bottom and new upward trend.

According to analysis from CryptoQuant analyst Carmelo Aleman, on-chain data indicates a market landscape characterized by institutional redistribution, structural weakness, and signs of a rebound. Large whale investors holding more than 10,000 BTC and those with 1,000 to 10,000 BTC are primarily in a selling position, reflecting ongoing profit-taking by institutions to reduce risk exposure. Retail investors, with wallets holding 0 to 1 BTC and 1 to 10 BTC, have demonstrated net selling over the past 60 days, indicating a lack of purchasing support.

In contrast, mid-sized BTC holders in the 100 to 1,000 BTC range are acquiring steadily, and the 10 to 100 BTC group is showing consistent accumulation. After an 11-day selling spree, Bitcoin rebounded above $89,000 on late Monday, suggesting the formation of a local bottom, though this has yet to be conclusively confirmed.

Other analysts, including Ash Crypto, have noted a hidden bullish divergence on the weekly timeframe, indicating that selling pressure is easing, momentum is stabilizing, and the weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) may soon reverse. If confirmed, this typically precedes a strong continuation rally.

Additional insights from Alphractal founder Joao Wedson highlight that the Whale vs. Retail Delta indicator is showing a historically unprecedented bullish signal, with whales holding dominant long positions for the first time in history. Bitcoin's daily spot volume on Binance consistently exceeded $10 billion throughout November, significantly higher than previous months, while open interest in derivatives declined by $5 billion, indicating a healthier market with less speculation and a shift to spot trading for sustainable upward momentum.

Bitcoin is currently trading at $87,150, 30% below its all-time high of $126,000, having erased all year-to-date gains with a roughly 9% drop. However, analysts caution that the current rebound could be a 'dead cat bounce,' advising traders to reduce leverage in case of a negative turn.