The first week of the U.S. military conflict with Iran has consumed an estimated $11.3 billion, a figure that represents nearly half the total value of the U.S. government's Bitcoin holdings. According to figures provided to Congress, the government holds 328,372 Bitcoins, worth approximately $23.13 billion as of March 13, 2026. The initial war costs have therefore used up roughly 48.9% of that reserve value.
At the current spending rate of about $1.88 billion per day, the entire Bitcoin reserve would be exhausted in just over 12 days. Officials have clarified that the $11.3 billion does not cover the full cost of the war, with the White House expected to request additional funding from Congress. Some estimates put the total cost at $50 billion or more.
The Bitcoin stockpile, built through seized assets and established by executive order, was intended to be held indefinitely and not sold, even during conflict. The war began with joint U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on February 28, later spilling into Lebanon. Iran's military retaliation has effectively blocked the Strait of Hormuz, causing oil prices to skyrocket, with Brent crude momentarily hitting $119.50 per barrel.
Despite the global market chaos, cryptocurrencies have shown relative strength. Bitcoin has climbed nearly 8% since the first U.S. strikes in late February, holding steady near $72,000 even as equity markets struggle under high oil prices. Analysts attribute this resilience to demand from the Middle East, where residents in cities like Dubai and Abu Dhabi, facing potential banking disruptions, are seeking safe, accessible assets. Stock exchanges in those cities briefly shut down, while Bitcoin traded around the clock.
Further underscoring Bitcoin's evolving role, a JPMorgan analysis reveals a shift in investor behavior. Since the conflict began, the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) ETF has seen asset inflows rise about 1.5%, while the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) ETF declined roughly 2.7%. This signals a growing appetite for Bitcoin as a digital alternative to traditional safe-haven assets like gold.
Looking ahead, analysts offer differing views on the war's long-term impact on Bitcoin. Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, argues that excessive military spending could force the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates and inject liquidity to fund the war, a scenario historically beneficial for Bitcoin. Analysts at the London Crypto Club suggest Bitcoin benefits regardless of the conflict's duration, acting as either a safe haven in a prolonged war or a recovery play if fighting ends quickly.
