Taiwan has significantly upgraded its 2025 economic growth forecast to 7.4%, up from a previous estimate of 4.5%, marking the island's fastest expansion pace since 2010. The revision, announced by the Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics (DGBAS), is driven by unprecedented global demand for AI servers, semiconductors, and high-performance computing components.
Merchandise exports are projected to reach US$664.4 billion in 2025, the highest annual export growth in 15 years, with semiconductors and ICT products as the backbone. AI server shipments are expected to climb sharply, supported by a 40% jump in capital expenditures from global cloud providers in 2025. Companies like TSMC and Inventec are experiencing strong upcycles, with Inventec anticipating double-digit growth in AI server shipments due to transitions to new GPU platforms and liquid-cooled racks.
Domestically, private consumption is forecast to grow 1.5% in 2025, bolstered by a NT$10,000 cash handout and tax reductions aimed at stimulating auto sales. However, risks remain, including potential U.S. trade policy shifts, semiconductor tariff investigations, and a projected cooling in AI demand, with the 2026 growth forecast adjusted to 3.5%.
