Grayscale Analysts Predict Bittensor's First Halving on Dec 14 Could Be Major Catalyst for TAO Price

Grayscale analysts have published research suggesting that Bittensor's (TAO) upcoming first token halving on December 14, 2025, could serve as a defining catalyst for the asset's next major price expansion. The event will cut daily token issuance from 7,200 TAO to 3,600 TAO, a 50% reduction in new supply, advancing the network's scarcity model in a manner that closely mirrors Bitcoin's established halving cycle.

The halving will sharply reduce TAO's inflation rate from approximately 25.6% to 12.8%, marking the most significant issuance adjustment in the network's history since its 2021 launch. Grayscale analyst Will Ogden Moore emphasized that halving events in other capped-supply assets have often preceded strong upside momentum, especially when demand remains steady or increases. The research frames the December reduction as a key milestone in Bittensor's long-term maturation, potentially reshaping how investors evaluate the project's monetary dynamics.

Beyond the supply shock, Grayscale identifies growing institutional involvement as a critical confidence driver. Multiple publicly listed companies have already accumulated sizable TAO holdings as part of long-term treasury strategies, with TAO Synergies holding approximately $12 million worth of tokens. Furthermore, Grayscale's own TAO Exchange-Traded Product (ETP), approved in October 2025, will soon provide traditional investors with regulated, exchange-listed access to the asset, potentially deepening liquidity at a critical moment.

The fundamental strength of the Bittensor network is highlighted by its expanding ecosystem of AI subnets. The network currently has 129 active subnets offering AI services like compute, data storage, AI agents, and deepfake detection. The combined market cap of these subnets is reported to be near $3 billion. This ecosystem growth, including the recent launch of dynamic TAO (dTAO) which made subnets directly investible, signals genuine adoption and utility beyond speculation.

Institutional investment in the ecosystem is also accelerating. Firms like Yuma Asset Management and Stillcore Capital have launched funds investing in top Bittensor subnets, and infrastructure developer xTao began trading on the TSX Venture Exchange in July 2025.

With the halving just days away, Grayscale believes the combination of structurally lower inflation, broader institutional access, and rising demand across Bittensor's AI-driven ecosystem creates a compelling setup. The research team suggests that if network usage continues to scale alongside increasing scarcity, TAO could enter a new phase of price discovery heading into 2026.