Bitcoin appears poised to close 2025 in negative territory, marking one of its worst fourth-quarter performances in recent years. However, market analysts are offering divergent forecasts for 2026, ranging from a critical support test to a dramatic cycle reset.
One prominent view, presented by quant trader CryptoOnchain on December 20, suggests Bitcoin's price structure is tilting bearish. The analyst notes that BTC is hovering around its key Point of Control (POC)—the price level with the highest trading volume—and a failure to recover former highs increases the likelihood of a break below this level. CryptoOnchain identifies the $70,000 to $73,000 range, which was the previous cycle's peak, as a critical "support flip" zone. This region could see aggressive buyer entry and is deemed crucial for preventing a deeper correction and preserving Bitcoin's long-term bullish macro trend. The analyst points to a divergent Relative Strength Index (RSI) as further evidence supporting a potential drop to this $70K-$73K cushion, advising traders to watch for reversal triggers around $72,000. A fall to this level would represent an almost 20% decline from Bitcoin's current price of approximately $88,330.
In stark contrast, another analyst presents a far more bearish scenario, predicting Bitcoin could bottom around $40,000 sometime in 2026. This forecast is based on Bitcoin's historical four-year cycles driven by liquidity, leverage, and human behavior. The analyst argues that after every major run—characterized by a post-halving explosion, max leverage from late buyers, and widespread euphoria—Bitcoin undergoes a "deep, violent reset" before its next real expansion. Historical precedents cited include the 85% drop in 2013-2014, the 84% drop in 2017-2018, and the 77% drop in 2021-2022. The analyst contends that current conditions, with institutional ETF presence and compressed volatility leading to over-leverage, make downside risk highly visible. A drop to $40,000 would align with previous resistance-turned-support levels, long-term moving averages, and a post-ETF liquidity gap. This reset, while painful, is framed not as an endpoint but as the necessary foundation for setting up Bitcoin's next massive run toward new all-time highs.
