The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) has not yet released official Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures for the third quarter of 2025, leaving recent claims about economic acceleration unverified. The BEA confirms its next scheduled GDP report is set for January 2026. The most recent official data shows the U.S. economy grew at an annualized rate of 3.8% in Q2 2025, following a 0.5% contraction in Q1.
Analysts anticipate the upcoming preliminary Q3 GDP estimate, scheduled for release on Tuesday at 13:30 GMT, will show annualized growth of 3.2%. This represents a slight deceleration from the previous quarter but still indicates healthy economic progress. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model provides a slightly higher running estimate of 3.5% growth for Q3.
The release will be accompanied by the GDP Price Index (deflator), a key inflation measure which stood at 2.1% in Q2. Market focus, however, has shifted somewhat from growth to a weakening labor market, with the Unemployment Rate rising to 4.6% in November. This labor market loosening, beyond levels comfortable for the Federal Reserve, could potentially weigh on consumption and the final GDP figure.
Financial markets, including cryptocurrency, have shown no immediate reaction to the unverified claims or forecasts. The official data is expected to impact the U.S. Dollar, with analysts noting the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is in a bearish technical position ahead of the release. A negative reading could extend the dollar's decline, while a positive surprise might offer temporary relief to USD bulls, though unlikely to reverse the prevailing trend amid reduced holiday trading volumes.
