The Polkadot (DOT) token is caught in a tug-of-war between short-term price rallies and a dominant long-term bearish trend. On Monday, December 29, 2025, DOT was trading around $1.83, marking a 2% decline over the previous 24 hours. The key technical resistance level of $1.90 has proven unbreakable, attributed to persistent weakness across the broader altcoin market and low trading volume.
The asset's yearly performance paints a stark picture, with DOT accumulating a 74% loss over the past year after trading above $10 in January 2025. The 30-day metric further consolidates this downward trend, showing an 18% decline despite a brief weekly rally earlier in the period.
This bearish context is linked to macroeconomic uncertainty affecting primary crypto assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum, which are struggling with their own psychological resistances. Technical indicators for DOT suggest the downtrend may have room to continue. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is in decline, confirming short-term weakness, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains below 50. Analysts warn that if selling pressure persists, the next major support level to watch is $1.70.
However, the market narrative showed a flicker of positivity over the weekend. According to a CoinDesk 20 performance update, DOT was a leader among major assets, rising 6.0% between Friday afternoon and Monday. This highlights the volatile and conflicting signals within the current market environment.
Internally, the Polkadot network experienced a notable event. In Era #2035, an issue with an off-chain election tool limited the active nominator set from the usual ~22,000 to just 3,000. This technical hiccup, acknowledged by the official Polkadot account, led to higher individual staking rewards for those included in that era.
Looking ahead, analysts state that for the bearish scenario to change, DOT would need to reclaim and hold levels of $2.00 and $2.25 in the short term. The success of any sustained recovery will depend on both internal ecosystem factors—such as parachain auction activity and governance improvements—and an improvement in global liquidity conditions as the market moves into 2026.
