The price of Hedera (HBAR) is concluding December under significant pressure, trading near recent lows around the $0.115 to $0.117 range. This follows months of sustained selling pressure, despite several notable developments for the network.
A key regulatory update occurred last week when the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) delayed its decision on Canary Capital's proposed HBAR exchange-traded fund (ETF). While this did not generate immediate market excitement, it keeps HBAR within the ongoing ETF conversation. Concurrently, the state of Georgia officially migrated its national real estate registry onto the Hedera network, marking a significant real-world use case for the blockchain.
From a technical perspective, the market structure remains weak. The 4-hour chart indicates a persistent downtrend that began with a breakdown in October, with every subsequent rally being sold into. Price action is currently consolidating, with smaller candles suggesting a pause rather than a reversal. For a meaningful shift, HBAR needs to reclaim and hold above the $0.120 level.
Market indicators paint a mixed picture. Volatility, as measured by the Average True Range (ATR), has declined since the October sell-off. Funding rates are slightly positive, indicating a preference for long positions despite poor price performance. However, an increase in net short positions highlights broader market skepticism about a swift recovery.
The daily chart reveals a bearish pole-and-flag pattern, with a breakdown below $0.108 potentially triggering a further 31% decline to approximately $0.074. A bullish divergence has emerged on the Money Flow Index (MFI), suggesting buyers are stepping in on dips between December 9 and 29, even as the price trended lower. This dip-buying activity is providing crucial support at the pattern's lower trendline.
Derivatives data from Nansen shows an uneven sentiment landscape. While smart money and consistent winners remain net short over a 30-day period, the size of their short exposure is shrinking, and some are beginning to open fresh long positions. The top 100 addresses and whales maintain a net long stance, albeit with reduced exposure.
The immediate outlook hinges on key price levels. A break below $0.108 confirms the bearish pattern, with $0.102 acting as the next major support. Conversely, a move above $0.126 is needed to damage the flag structure, and a rally past $0.139 would invalidate the pattern entirely. The market is now in a waiting phase to see if dip buyers can sustain their defense or if sellers will regain control.
